HG Contracts

When to use

• A workflow needs to time outreach to a renewal window.
• A prompt is identifying displacement opportunities (expired-not-replaced contracts).
• An author is sizing a deal — company_contracts gives a modeled value to anchor on.

Tools you'll touch

• company_contracts — modeled contract data: deal value, expiry, renewal likelihood

What HG actually returns

For a given company, HG returns the contracts it has modeled across publicly observable signals (procurement filings, press releases, partner announcements, hiring data, etc.).

Important framing:

• Modeled deal value, not invoiced. The dollar figure is HG's estimate of annual run-rate or total contract value, depending on what it could observe. Treat as order-of-magnitude.
• Expiry-date confidence. Each contract carries a confidence band on the expiry date — high confidence when the source explicitly stated the term, lower when HG inferred from a typical contract length.
• Renewal-likelihood scoring — a modeled probability that the company renews vs. switches. This is a signal, not a forecast.

The HG Insights credit cost is 1 credit per call, regardless of how many contracts come back. Filter to keep responses readable, but note that paginating MORE costs MORE — one well-filtered call beats several narrow ones.

How to read it

The 122-day expiry threshold for active displacement. Inside 122 days, the renewal cycle is usually live: the procurement team is gathering RFPs, the incumbent is in a renewal motion, and the buyer is in market. Outside 122 days, an outreach is "planning conversation"; inside, it's a "decision conversation". This threshold is a working heuristic — see hg-insights-api.md#contracts for the underlying confidence model.

Expired-not-replaced as whitespace. When HG sees a contract that expired more than 90 days ago and no new contract has been observed for the same product family, that's a whitespace signal — the company either churned out of the category or self-built. Worth a discovery call.

Renewal-likelihood readings:

• 0.7 → likely renews; lead with expansion or competitive insertion, not displacement.

• 0.4-0.7 → genuinely contested; this is where displacement plays land.
• < 0.4 → already losing the renewal; if they're on the incumbent's product, ride that signal hard.

Common pitfalls

1. Quoting the modeled value as if it were a price. "Their contract is $X" reads like fact. Hedge: "HG models the contract at ~$X annual run-rate".
2. Ignoring the expiry-date confidence band. A low-confidence date inside 122 days is still meaningful, but treat the 122-day window as approximate.
3. Treating renewal-likelihood as a forecast. It's a signal HG fits to public observables. The actual outcome depends on a dozen things HG cannot see.
4. Assuming credits scale with results. They do not for this tool — a call that returns 200 contracts costs the same 1 credit as one that returns 2. Filter (industry, employee band, expiry window) for signal quality and response size, not to save credits; splitting one sweep into many calls costs MORE, not less.

Citation rules

Always cite company_contracts results with the modeled qualifier on first use. Format: "HG-modeled contract: $X annual run-rate, expires Mar 2026 (high confidence)". On subsequent mentions, drop the framing.

Reference

• hg-insights-api.md#contracts
• hg-insights-api-v2.md#contracts